Will Apple Finally Make AR/VR Mainstream?

My bet: yes and here's why.

Jun 04, 2023

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Tomorrow is potentially a very big day for augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR).

Apple is rumored to be announcing their first major new product category since the Apple Watch nearly a decade ago: their own AR/VR headset.

You might not know this, but AR/VR headsets have been around since the 1960s. And yet 60 years on, they are still a fairly niche product category and only made it into the realm of consumer products within the last decade.

A slew of tech companies have taken a swing at AR/VR: Google, Meta, Microsoft, Magic Leap, Sony. Many of them seem to have come to a similar conclusion: people will only use AR/VR for extended periods if its for work.

Google Glass, Microsoft Hololens, Magic Leap 2, Meta Quest Pro

Microsoft’s latest headset, Hololens 2, is heavily targeting enterprise applications like engineering and manufacturing. Magic Leap’s newest offering seems to be going for a similar angle. Google Glass was only sunset earlier this year because enterprise customers were keeping it alive long past it had faded from mainstream consciousness. Meta is heavily pushing VR as the future of work as part of the Metaverse narrative.

It makes sense. AR can provide you with contextual, hands-free information that can come into use during complex procedures. VR can help you visualize designs, environments, or other people in true scale without them really being there. These are clearly useful features for work.

In our personal lives, the applications are much less clear. The main application is gaming, and while gaming has become a lot more mainstream over the years, it’s still not as mainstream as say, having an iPhone is today (also something that used to be fairly niche).

I think the biggest challenge to AR/VR headsets crossing into a mainstream consumer product is the obvious one: they live on your face.

Aside from the practical issues of strapping hardware that has some weight, generates heat, and requires a power supply or battery to your head, there is the huge issue of, “what will people think?”.

This may seem trivial, but I believe it’s the biggest issue facing this category of hardware. As a person that wears glasses, I know how much painstaking decision making goes into selecting a new pair of frames because they say so much about your identity and can truly change the way your face is perceived. So to make a one-size-fits all design that people will willingly put on their face around family, friends, and potentially strangers is no easy feat.

Additionally, there is the lingering stigma of AR/VR as the realm of doofy tech nerds. AR/VR tech was always kind of fringe, even amongst technology enthusiasts. And with so many highly visible failed runs at being the thing that drives mainstream adoption over the years by a variety of players, it as a product category smells of a joke from HBO’s Silicon Valley.

So this is where Apple comes in. At this point I think they have a lot going for them that the other contestants in the AR/VR race do not have.

Apple has never been one to be first to market. They heavily make use of second mover advantage to deliver a far superior experience and then dominate that market.

The iPhone was not the first smart phone. But it soon became the smart phone.

The Apple Watch was not the first smart watch. But it quickly became the smart watch.

Apple was definitely not the first to market on wireless headphones or earbuds. But they quickly dominated that market too.

Apple market dominance across smartphones, headphones, and smartwatches.

One of the primary reasons for the success of Apple’s products is they become status symbols. Apple is one of the few technology brands where you don’t want to hide the logo on the product.

Think of someone who uses an iPhone, has the AirPods Max, a MacBook Pro, and an Apple Watch. You’re probably imagining a certain kind of person. Probably a affluent, cool, upwardly mobile young professional with impeccable style.

It’s because of these associations (which Apple has of course carefully curated over the years) that you feel compelled to buy the latest Apple hardware. It’s not just that they make excellent products (they do), it’s that you feel a certain way and other people assume certain things about you when you use those products.

With the Apple Watch and the AirPods Max, Apple has already established a basecamp on that impassable mountain of making something acceptable to wear on your face. These were the first products that Apple made that would be prominently displayed on your person, and they have been welcomed by the market with open arms. Not only did Apple develop the technical know-how to make comfortable wearable products with these additions, but they also started to establish themselves as a fashion brand.

Another thing I think Apple has going for it that the other players in the space do not is trust in their brand. Love it or hate it, Apple’s closed ecosystem of hardware and software has meant that consumers have come to expect a certain level of magic from their products. “It just works”. They’ve established a user base that is not only very broad, but also extremely loyal.

It’s hard to imagine Microsoft or Meta inspiring that level of trust. Meta’s VR hardware requiring a Facebook account has probably stopped some potential users from jumping on the platform, not to mention their litany of PR issues around trust and privacy. Microsoft’s products have always been the standard, but they’ve never been loved in the way that Apple’s have.

I think a lot of iPhone and Mac users are going to be willing to take a gamble on an Apple AR/VR headset, even for the rumored steep price of $3,000.

So I’m putting it out there. I think Apple’s AR/VR headset is going to take this technology mainstream. They have the ability to make attractive wearable products, they have a track record of putting out iconic products that become status symbols and dominate the market, and they have the banked trust to convince consumers to give it a shot. They might not get there the first time (they rarely do), but within a few generations, I think they will.

What do you think?

Will Apple take this long nascent technology to the masses?

Let’s find out together at 10AM PST tomorrow.

Design Things of the Week

Each week I share a few design-related things I’ve encountered.

🤓 A course to help you grow your design career through LinkedIn by yours truly (22 days left for pre-sale pricing).

LinkedIn for Designers Course. I firmly believe growing a LinkedIn audience was the best thing I ever did for my career. Last Sunday I started pre-selling a downloadable video course that I’m developing to share what I’ve learned about growing on LinkedIn so other designers can do the same. I wasn’t quite sure how it’d go (it’s my first digital product!) but its sold 60 copies in its first week! The course will drop on June 25th for the full price of $50, but until then you can get it for just $25.

🍎A video that discusses iPhone’s ongoing market dominance and how Apple’s AR/VR headset will potentially replace it.

The iPhone is dead — long live the iPhone - The Verge. Related to today’s topic. A quick video that discusses how the iPhone has basically become an appliance for connection, and how a pair of AR glasses might replace that in future.

🍎What to expect at tomorrow’s WWDC event.

WWDC 2023: Everything you need to know - Macworld. Lots of hardware announcements!

🤖 A video that shows off NVIDIA’s advances in AI assisted 3D scanning tech using only phone video.

Digital Renaissance: NVIDIA Neuralangelo Research Reconstructs 3D Scenes - NVIDIA. 3D scanning using your phone is possible now, but what you get out of it varies wildly in quality and usability. A new demo by NVIDIA shows how they can construct incredibly detailed 3D scenes from phone videos with the help of AI reconstruction technology.

📌 Pinterest for designers and creatives.

Savee.it - I just found out about this. Basically a much more curated feed of artsy/designy images for your next moodboard. You can save stuff to your own profile and follow other designer’s profiles.

⚖️ An article that explains the latest status of non-compete clauses.

NLRB General Counsel Asserts Non-Competes Violate the National Labor Relations Act - The National Law Review. Not exactly design related, but potentially impacts many designers. Non-compete clauses in contracts were found by the National Labor Relations Board General Counsel to infringe on employees rights. Know your rights and protect yourself.

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Just the ID Jobs - 26x Full-Time, 2x Internships

“Just the Industrial Design Jobs” is a segment of this newsletter that lists only industrial design jobs that were posted within the last week to various job board websites.

This week’s Just the ID Jobs is brought to you by Precor

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Design Things by Anson Cheung

Will Apple Finally Make AR/VR Mainstream?

My bet: yes and here's why.

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What's the one thing you look forward to in this newsletter?

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