2023 ID predictions review
What I got right (and what I didn't)
At the beginning of this year I wrote a post making some predictions about how industrial design might evolve this year.
Anyone who tries to predict the future is just asking to be proven wrong, but its still fun to speculate. I’ll also be the first to admit this review is entirely subjective and I would welcome those who disagree with my assessments to let me know!
Lets see how my predictions shook out.
1. Sustainable design will become a key selling point
Did it happen in 2023?
Not really.
There’s definitely more movement than ever before in sustainable design, but as with all major societal and economic changes, it’s slow going.
I think its encouraging to see ideas like the modular/repairable Framework laptop take off, and actually get solid reviews when it is going up against so many entrenched players who aren’t trying to navigate the additional complexities of making something with easily swappable parts. In a sign of potentially bigger changes coming, Apple did publicly back a Right to Repair bill for the first time in California just two days ago.
Designers continue to lead the charge on sustainability. Concepts like Koru, a closed-loop furniture service envisioned by Studio Elk, a London based studio, align changing consumer preferences and needs with corporate economic incentives to make sustainable design a win-win. This kind of holistic thinking beyond simplistic solutions like using recycled material are going to be what get us to a better future.
But I don’t think sustainable design is a key selling point yet for products or for design services.
Though consumers say they prefer more sustainable options, they aren’t actually willing to put their money where their mouth is yet, and as such it isn’t much of a focus for companies that make products for them.
Things are moving in the right direction, but not fast enough.
2. A renewed focus on unit economics and profitability
Did it happen in 2023?
I think this was true.
I don’t have a lot of data to back it up, but anecdotally I heard a lot less about designers working on crazy new ideas or even consumer products this year, and a lot more on stuff that that had the possibility to drive big economic value: climate tech, healthcare, robotics. I saw this in my own client work over the last year as well, which has mostly been in health tech and robotics.
I think this reflects the state of the economy. Crunchbase data shows that venture funding is way down compared to prior years, and specifically there has been less seed and angel stage funding. Though it seems like the dreaded recession might never hit and we could be in for more of a soft landing, money is tighter and so it flows to areas where it is more likely to generate larger returns.
3. Designers will embrace AI (for better or for worse)
Did it happen in 2023?
Yes. This is happening.
After an initial deluge of AI design content earlier in the year, things have quieted down a bit but designers are continuing to experiment and incorporate new AI tools into their workflows.
In 2023 we saw the emergence of real AI design experts like Hector Rodriguez, who is leading the charge on using Mid Journey in a real professional industrial design process through adopting a completely new mindset and developing clear frameworks on how to use the tool.
We also saw AI design tools move beyond text prompting and start to incorporate sketching, images, and video as multi-modal inputs to help steer the design process (check out this video from designer Ian Campbell Cole).
All this is trending towards AI becoming a capable co-pilot for designers. Rather than fear being replaced, I’m even more excited for developments in AI that help designers become more efficient and prolific at what we do.
4. It will be harder to get a design job (unfortunately)
Did it happen in 2023?
Yes, I think this also turned out to be true.
From what I’ve heard, there have been a lot of layoffs for industrial designers, and it was a lot harder to land a job this year. Again, purse strings are tighter and companies are rethinking where their dollars are invested.
While tighter corporate purse strings are bad for employees, it’s great for external contractors. My other related prediction that more designers would be striking out on their own and going freelance or starting their own small studios also turned out to be true. In 2023 I saw a lot of industrial designers on LinkedIn, whether its post layoff or just a next career move, announcing the launch of their own small design businesses.
5. (Good) Design leaders will change the way they lead
Did it happen in 2023?
Not sure.
A 2023 State of Work Report commissioned by Adobe highlights key some key expectations of the modern workforce. They want the organization to care for their well-being at work and outside of work, they want to be provided the right technologies, they want work to be distributed appropriately, they expect transparency, and want clarity around goals and responsibilities.
It also shows that most employees surveyed are mostly not happy with how their management is performing in these areas.
While the report was not exclusive to designers, you can bet designers want the same things. If you’ve worked in any design organization, you’ll know that some of these issues are common complaints among often overworked designers.
While I have heard of many design teams loosening up and, for example, embracing hybrid work and more flexible schedules, I haven’t heard much about organizations significantly altering the way they lead their designers.
What do you think?
Do you think these predictions ID in 2023 held up?
Does your experience align with my review? If not, I’d love to hear what was different from what I wrote.
This is going to be my last newsletter of the year. I’m taking some much-needed time off for the holidays.
See you in 2024!
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